Three Fancies for Saturday’s ITV Televised Breeders’ Cup Card
Author:
Roy Brindley
Tarnawa can carry the European flag into battle at the annual Breeders’ Cup meeting on Saturday night, and come out victorious. The Irish-trained mare landed the $4 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf 12 months ago and she is expected to retain her crown.
Tarnawa has a second $4 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf in her sights. ?Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders’ Cup Photos
The shortest-priced of all European challengers at the 2024 Breeders’ Cup meeting, the five-year-old goes in the 11.40 pm race. It is the eighth of a nine-race Breeders’ Cup card. All the action, from Del Mar racetrack in California, will be broadcast live on ITV4.
Valid Reasons for Defeat and Saturday Success
Racing in the famous green silks of His Highness the Aga Khan, Tarnawa kicked off her 2024 campaign with a stunning success in a Group 3 contest at Leopardstown in the summer. She has been luckless in two subsequent starts.
The first reversal came in the Irish Champion Stakes where she narrowly failed to beat a small but select field. Her excuse was an enforced detour across the course caused by an errant rival. In any other racing jurisdiction, she would have doubtlessly claimed the race in the stewards’ room.
In the l’Arc de Triomphe the heavens opened and turned the course into a quagmire. Despite the ground going against her, she still finished an excellent second amongst one of the finest fields ever assembled.
Now, back on a flat track with good ground underfoot, Tarnawa will have no excuses. She certainly has the beating of a numerically strong European entry. The best of the local hopes is Domestic Spending. Ironically bred in Britain, she is stepping up two furlongs in trip. Her pedigree suggests it will not work in her favor.
Life Should Be Good for Favorite Backers in the Dirt Mile
There are no European runners in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (8.19 pm). Here, Life Is Good can get favorite backers off to a great start. The Todd Pletcher trained runner beat subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit on his debut – at odds of 1/5 – and trounced him by eight lengths on his second juvenile start.
Life Is Good has run just twice this season. Most recently he scored at odds of 1/20 in the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap at Belmont Park. As the only three-year-old in Saturday’s line-up, he receives three pounds in weight from all seven rivals. It should truly tip the scales in his favor.
Goddess ready to Take Europe to War
War Like Goddess looks like the most likely winner of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (8.59 pm). It may be a contest brimming with big race winners but very few of the European contingent appears to be bringing their A-game to the party.
War Like Goddess working at Del Mar earlier this week. ?Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders’ Cup Photos
A case in point is Love. The five-time Group 1 winner, trained by Aidan O’Brien, has run way below her best in her last three starts. Naturally the 1000 Guineas an Oaks winner would be the one to beat based on her 2020 form. But this looks like the last throw of the dice before she is packed off to the breeding paddocks.
Audarya won this race for Newmarket trainer James Fanshawe last year, but she too has not been firing on all cylinders during 2024 and is hard to fancy.
Japan’s Loves Only You was a classic winner at three and she has maintained a good level of form this year. It will be fascinating to see how she fares, but Japanese horses have only won one race at the Breeders’ Cup and that is concerning.
So, War Like Goddess is the safe play. Bill Mott’s filly has won her last four starts all in Graded company and all on turf. She is yet to be tested against European horses who tend to excel on grass, but she is in form and that is more than can be said about many of her rivals.
How Many European Winners Can We Expect?
If you are tuning in to watch the Breeders’ Cup action on Friday – when there are five two-year-old races – or Saturday, you are likely to be supporting British and Irish-trained runners. Sadly, you might be left somewhat disappointed. According to the odds compilers at Ladbrokes, it is going to be more a case of famine than feast.
The renowned British bookmaker is offering 3/1 about three or more UK-trained winners at the 14-race Breeders Cup meeting. At 6/5, just one success is the marginal favorite in the ‘Irish winners’ market. Zero winners follows at 13/8 in the betting list.
Breeders’ Cup Best Bets
- Tarnawa – Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (11.40 pm)
- Life Is Good – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (8.19 pm)
- War Like Goddess – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (8.59 pm)
